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How US presidential election years affect the market
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
But if the past century is any guide, the long-term consequences of US presidential election years on investor portfolios, including 401(k)s, is minimal at best. Unsurprisingly, those four presidential election years occurred at times of seismic events: The Great Depression. The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to presidential election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. “If you’re not going to make a change in a nonelection year, you shouldn’t do so in a presidential election year,” Mukherjee said.
Persons: TIAA, , Niladri Mukherjee, Jeff Buchbinder, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, ” Mukherjee, Mukherjee, What’s, — Mukherjee, you’re, Daniel Crosby, Crosby Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Bank, , Senate Locations: New York, United States
Looking to heal my burnout and find happiness beyond work, I spent a year and a half — and $34,000 — exploring South America and Asia. That's when I realized I'd made a huge mistake: I had changed my circumstances, but not my state of mind. But my burnout gave me the clarity I needed to slash my sabbatical bucket list in half, to focus on quality over quantity. I accepted that I'd continue traveling later if I wanted to, even if it meant less time to pursue professional goals. I gave up trying to work and make money while travelingIn my first few months traveling, I frequently stayed up late to formulate and pitch freelance story ideas.
Persons: I'd, Helen Zhao I, Chiang Mai Organizations: Starbucks Locations: South America, Asia, Patagonia, Thailand, Island, Korea, Japan, Tokyo, Pai , Thailand, Cartagena, Colombia
"These numbers on abortion have gigantic implications for just about every large company in America," said Cyrus Beschloss, the CEO of The Generation Lab. The CNBC/Generation Lab survey was conducted between April 26 and May 2, and has a margin of error +/- 3.1%. Sour on the economyThe survey also found that respondents had a negative opinion of an economy many would consider robust. The survey showed that 54% of respondents feel inflation impacts them the most in "the cost of food." Offered two options of how the government should proceed with TikTok, a large majority — 70% — of survey respondents said it should "allow TikTok to keep operating as usual."
Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Cyrus Beschloss, they're, Roe, Wade, Jerome Powell, Powell, Delano Saporu, Saporu, Joe Biden, Steve Cohen, workweek, Kennedy, Biden, Donald Trump, Daniel Steinle Organizations: Emory University, AFP, Getty, CNBC, U.S, Federal Reserve, New Street Advisors, Congress, New York Mets, Biden, Trump, Bloomberg Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, USA, America, Washington, U.S, Waukesha, Waukesha , Wisconsin
Kellogg's 'summer hours' policy gives UK employees 4.5-day workweeks. The 21-year-old policy is now available to 560 employees in the UK. AdvertisementKellogg's global snacks unit is giving UK workers half days on Fridays this summer, but there's a catch. The "summer hours" policy has been active at Kellogg's in the UK for 21 years, the company said in a release, and is now available to roughly 560 employees in the office and across the field. Summer Fridays have long been a staple of the corporate workweek in some fields.
Persons: , Kellanova —, Chris Silcock Organizations: Service, Kellanova, Workers Locations: Kellogg's
BARCELONA, SPAIN - JANUARY 31: A logo sits illuminated outside the Amazon Web Services (AWS) booth at ISE 2023 and IOT Solution World Congress at Fira Barcelona on January 31, 2023 in Barcelona, Spain. (Photo by Cesc Maymo/Getty Images)SINGAPORE — Amazon Web Services on Tuesday said it will invest an additional 12 billion Singapore dollars (about $8.87 billion) over the next five years to grow its cloud infrastructure and services in Singapore. "The investment will go into the construction and build up of the DC capabilities, all associating with the Asia-Pacific Singapore region," Priscilla Chong, country manager of AWS Singapore, told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Tuesday. The U.S. tech giant's cloud computing arm launched its first Asia-Pacific region in Singapore in 2010 – its first foray outside of the U.S. and Europe. Since then, AWS said it has pumped over SG$11 billion into Singapore's cloud infrastructure and ecosystem.
Persons: Cesc Maymo, Priscilla Chong, CNBC's, Chong Organizations: Amazon Web Services, Fira Barcelona, Integrated Systems, Services, AWS Singapore, ASEAN Locations: BARCELONA, SPAIN, Barcelona, Spain, Integrated Systems Europe, SINGAPORE, Singapore, Asia, Pacific Singapore, U.S, Pacific, Europe
A rapidly rising market has caught a lot of investors off-guard. He loves to watch what he calls the "pain trade," the move in the markets that would catch the largest number of active investors off-guard. Surveying Monday's late-day rally on the floor, Anderson looked up at the NYSE boards and said, "the pain trade is up." The S & P 500 is now within 1.4% of its old closing high of 5,254 from March 28th. The STOXX Europe 600, essentially the S & P 500 of Europe, is also less than 1% below an historic high.
Persons: Tim Anderson, Anderson, It's, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek, Ingersoll Rand, Parker, Hannifin, it's, Alec Young, MAPsignals.com Organizations: MND Partners, NYSE, Nasdaq, Utilities, Reuters, Southern Company, EatoN Corp Locations: Europe, industrials
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer CEA Chair Glenn Hubbard: We're potentially on the cusp of a growth miracle with productivityGlenn Hubbard, Columbia University professor of economics and finance and former CEA chair, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the importance of growth and productivity in the economy, why he believes growth should be front and center on the campaign trail in the 2024 presidential election, the Fed's inflation fight, the rise of college campus protests, and more.
Persons: Glenn Hubbard, We're Organizations: Columbia University, CEA
A prolonged drought in southeast Asia contributed to massive fish deaths in southern Vietnam. The climate crisis and human development threaten the Mekong Delta, a key global agricultural center. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In Vietnam, the maze of wetlands that comprise the Mekong Delta is called the country's "rice bowl" because of the vast agriculture it supports. Related storiesMeanwhile, in southern Vietnam, hundreds of thousands of fish died in a reservoir last month as temperatures peaked over 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain fell for weeks, the AFP reported.
Persons: , El Niño, they're, Ksor Phung, VnExpress Organizations: Service, Mekong Delta, country's Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment, World Bank, AFP, Residents, Business, Getty, Commission Locations: Asia, Vietnam, Delta, El, Mekong
At his annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, the 93 year-old co-founder, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway issued a stark warning about the potential dangers of the technology. “We let a genie out of the bottle when we developed nuclear weapons,” he said Saturday. JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, is also exploring the potential of generative AI within its own ecosystem, Dimon said. Dozens of AI industry leaders, academics and even some celebrities have signed a statement warning of an “extinction” risk from AI. “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war,” the statement said.
Persons: New York CNN — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, , Greg Abel, Buffett, , Abel, isn’t, Buffett Buffett, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Sonnenfeld, Doug McMillion, James Quincy, Sam Altman, Geoffrey Hinton Organizations: New, New York CNN, Berkshire, International Monetary Fund, Industries, Nvidia, Microsoft, scamming, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Software, Yale, Summit, CNN, Walmart, Xerox, Google Locations: New York, Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, scamming
But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.
Persons: , they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed
Tai chi master Shirley Chock shares her simple morning exercise to boost energy and reduce stress. AdvertisementA master tai chi instructor said she follows a simple morning routine to boost her energy and focus while reducing stress, and it only takes a few seconds to try at home. Shirley Chock, known as the "Stressbender," is the owner and executive director of Aiping Tai Chi. Chock told Business Insider that learning the traditional Chinese martial art of tai chi helped her avoid burnout in her career, prompting her to start teaching full-time to help others. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Tai, Shirley Chock, , Aiping, Aiping Tai Chi, Chock Organizations: Service, Yale, Business Locations: Aiping Tai
Read previewThe AI boom resembles the dot-com bubble — but there's one big difference that makes this craze far more dangerous, says one expert. "Many dot-com companies that drove the internet change went broke doing it. Many AI companies driving as big a change will go broke or lose half their value." "The giant AI pioneers won't go broke, but if AI losses drive their stock prices down, lots of investors will suffer," Gordon said. He's previously drawn a line between the dot-com bubble and the tech-stock boom.
Persons: , Erik Gordon, Gordon, He's Organizations: Service, Business, University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, Nvidia, Microsoft, Big Tech
The industrial-focused names in the Club's portfolio wrapped up a pretty solid earnings season last week, but their stocks were largely not rewarded. AI spending First, a surge in AI investments was welcomed news for Eaton, DuPont and Linde. "Everything was about as perfect as you can get this quarter," Jim Cramer said after the print. LIN YTD mountain Linde (LIN) year-to-date performance Linde posted mixed a quarterly Thursday — an earnings beat but a revenue miss. Destocking Destocking, or whittling down excess inventory, was important at Stanley Black & Decker, DuPont, and Honeywell.
Persons: toolmaker Stanley Black, Linde, DuPont, Eaton, Craig Arnold, Jim Cramer, Ed Breen, Jim, Sanjiv Lamba, Stanley Black, Decker, Wall, SWK, destocking, Vimal Kapur, Kapur, Lamba, Matthew White, Price, we're, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Honeywell, Eaton, DuPont, Linde, Electrical, workloads, Club, de Nemours, Management, LIN, The, Stanley, Supply, Technologies, CNBC, Power Locations: Eaton, U.S, Pleasanton , California
Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.
Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, , , Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor
Youth unemployment, income inequality, regional disparities, and Russian oil remain big problems. But the work starts there, as he'll have to navigate thorny issues such as youth unemployment, income inequality, and reliance on sanctioned Russian oil. "The other key economic policy was JAM — the trinity of bank accounts for the poor, mobile numbers and a biometric card. Indian demand for Russian oil has cooled in recent months as new sanctions have made it more expensive, but the buying remains controversial. Alexandr Demyanchuk/AFP/Getty ImagesIndia the IT hubUnder Modi, India has made big strides in modernizing its economy, combating bureaucracy, and appealing to foreign investors.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, Tim Cook, , Modi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan's Dimon, He's, Musk, Apple's Cook, Joe Biden, Sundar Pichai, Anna Moneymaker, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella, Alphabet's Sundar Pichai, Richard Rossow, Demonetisation, Kunal Sen, Sen, Tim Graham, Rossow, tycoons Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Mukesh Ambani, Isha Piramal, Rihanna, Shloka Mehta Ambani, Akash Ambani, Radhika Merchant, Anant, Radhika, Ambani, they'd, Neelima Jain, Vladimir Putin, Alexandr Demyanchuk, Sanjay Shetty, Shetty Organizations: Service, titans, Monetary Fund, Gross, World Bank, Economic, of New, Google, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, India, Studies, Center for Strategic & International Studies, United Nations, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics, University of Manchester, International Labor Organization, Oxfam, Bloomberg, Reliance Industries, Adani, CSIS, Indian, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Getty, Modi, Big Tech, Randstad, Economic Times Locations: India, Britain, Japan, Germany, China, of New York, Nimaj, Rajasthan, North Korea, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Russia, Ukraine, Europe, Moscow, Western, Samarkand, AFP, Randstad India
Jan Sramek, CEO of California Forever, wants to build a new city in Solano County, California. The recent "AI boom" will only make the housing crisis worse, Sramek told Kara Swisher. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Previously published information from California Forever revealed that the city will be about 18,600 acres with a capacity to welcome 400,000 residents. A California Forever spokesperson didn't address the question in an emailed response to Business Insider.
Persons: Jan Sramek, Sramek, Kara Swisher, , Goldman Sachs, didn't, The Lever Organizations: Service, Silicon, California Forever, Business, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Research Locations: California, Solano County , California, Northern California, Solano County, San Francisco, Golden State, Bay, Palo Alto
Analyst Scot Ciccarelli upgraded the retailer to buy from hold and raised his price target by $6 to $86. — Alex Harring 6: 22 a.m.: Here's what Wall Street thinks of Coinbase's earnings Coinbase's stronger-than-expected earnings have prompted analyst reactions. Barclays' Benjamin Budish (underweight, $179 price target unchanged, 21.8% downside): "The biggest question going forward is, how sustainable are these trends? — Alex Harring 6:12 a.m.: Wall Street reacts to Apple earnings Apple's buyback announcement has caught the eye of Wall Street analysts. Analyst Benjamin Nolan upgraded the railroad stock to buy from hold and increased his price target by $19 to $267.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Bernstein, Aneesha Sherman, Sherman, — Alex Harring, Truist, Scot Ciccarelli, Ciccarelli, Ollie's, Estee Lauder, Dara Mohsenian, Mohsenian, Alex Harring, FactSet, Coinbase, what's, , Goldman Sachs, Will Nance, Benjamin Budish, Oppenheimer's Owen Lau, JPMorgan's Samik Chatterjee, Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring, Michael Ng, bullish, George Notter, Notter, We've, it's, Stifel, Benjamin Nolan, Nolan, — Alex Harring —, Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, Arista and Union Pacific, Apple, Arista, FactSet, Barclays, Bloomberg, ASU, Street, Services, Jefferies, Arista Networks, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Pacific, Union Pacific Locations: F3Q, China, Thursday's
Shares of Linde fell on Thursday after the industrial gas giant reported mixed first-quarter results and its guidance left some investors wanting more. We're not sure of the rationale for excluding it but that explains why we're not fretting about Linde's lack of guidance raise. Guidance For the second quarter, Linde projects adjusted EPS between $3.70 and $3.80, which implies 5% to 7% year-over-year growth, excluding currency impacts. As always with Linde, the midpoint of the guidance assumes no economic improvement. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Linde, , Sanjiv Lamba, Matthew White, White, Lamba, Eaton, We're, we're, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Michaela Rehle Organizations: Linde, Revenue, LSEG, Products, Management, LIN, Nvidia, CNBC Locations: Munich, Pullach, Germany
Case in point: the PowerPoint party, where people get together to show each other presentations on various topics in the name of having fun. It's a chance to be creative and turn something you do at work into something silly and social. The rise of the PowerPoint party also speaks to the workification of our day-to-day lives. Perhaps it's no surprise that young adults who had their childhood activities scheduled down to the minute are embracing the PowerPoint party. If you absolutely insist on having a PowerPoint party, God bless.
Persons: , it's, we've, hotness, It's, Anna North, Emily Stewart Organizations: Harvard, it's Harvard, Cosmopolitan, Microsoft, Google, Monopoly, Business Locations: Canada
In his 27 years at the helm of Amazon, Jeff Bezos taught his successor, Jassy, and others a lot about how to run one of the world's biggest businesses. One of Bezos' meeting no-nos is PowerPoints, which he has banned in company meetings. "I thought to myself, 'We can sell anything this way,'" Bezos said. Bezos says Type 1 decisions take up most of your time, while Type 2 decisions should be delegated or grouped with other smaller decisions for later. Bezos believes you should make decisions with 70% of the information you wish you had, and iterate from there.
Persons: , Andy Jassy, Jeff Bezos, Jassy, Jeff, Bezos, he's, It's, He's, they've, centibillionaire, you'll, you'd Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Amazon
Maya Rudolph says she was burned out from running a production company she cofounded. "I like working, but I don't like killing myself," Rudolph told Town and Country Magazine. AdvertisementMaya Rudolph says she overworked herself while trying to run the production company she cofounded in 2018. In between running the company and starring in different shows, the workload caught up to her. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Maya Rudolph, Rudolph, , Natasha Lyonne, Danielle Renfrew Behrens Organizations: Town, Country Magazine, Service, Animal Pictures, Business
The bill, called the Warehouse Worker Protection Act, is the first attempt to police warehouse quotas at the federal level, after similar laws have passed in states including California, New York, Washington and Minnesota. The legislation would require employers to be more transparent about workplace quotas and potential disciplinary consequences, and provide workers with at least two business days' notice of any changes to quotas or workplace surveillance. Wendy Taylor, a packer at an Amazon warehouse in Missouri, said during Markey's press conference on Thursday that she and others are "fighting for quota transparency." Taylor blamed Amazon's "inhumane work rates" for the injury, and added, "Amazon workers provide same-day shipping, but we can't even get the same-day care we deserve." WATCH: Amazon's worker safety hazards come under fire from regulators and the DOJ
Persons: Democratic Sen, Ed Markey, Markey, It's, Wendy Taylor, packer, Taylor, Amazon's Organizations: Democratic, Amazon, Health, Education, Labor, Pensions, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, OSHA, U.S, Attorney's, U.S . Department of Justice, DOJ Locations: California , New York, Washington, Minnesota, U.S, Missouri
Moderna on Thursday posted a narrower-than-expected loss for the first quarter as the company's cost-cutting efforts took hold and sales of its Covid vaccine, its only commercially available product, topped estimates. The biotech company booked first-quarter sales of $167 million, with revenue from its Covid shot dropping roughly 90% from the same period a year ago. The company reiterated its full-year 2024 sales guidance of roughly $4 billion, which includes revenue from its RSV vaccine. For the first quarter, Mock said the company is "more encouraged by what we're seeing from a productivity perspective" than the higher sales of its Covid vaccine. Cost of sales was $96 million for the fourth quarter, down 88% from the same period a year ago.
Persons: we've, Stéphane Bancel, Jamey Mock, Mock, OpenAI Organizations: Moderna, LSEG, CNBC, Research, Mock, Merck Locations: Moderna, U.S, America
Stock futures advanced Wednesday night as investors looked ahead to more corporate earnings due Thursday and key labor data set for later in the week. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3%. Restaurant delivery service DoorDash dropped 15% after reporting a wider loss per share than Wall Street forecast. Those moves followed a choppy day on Wall Street as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The Dow finished about 0.2% higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed the session lower by roughly 0.3%.
Persons: DoorDash, Jerome Powell, Eric Winograd, Winograd, Coinbase Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Qualcomm, Federal, Dow, Apple, Moderna Locations: AllianceBernstein, Friday's
Ford says the main goals of the "Ford University" platform are to improve customer service, better engage employees — especially younger ones who are accustomed to binge-watching videos — and provide dealers and the company with more data to assist business. Vietor, who joined Ford in March 2023 after leading global games learning for Amazon Web Services, will oversee Ford University. She declined to disclose how much the company has spent on the new training. Dealership employees, who are independently employed by dealers, are crucial to the company's sales, performance and customer engagement and satisfaction. Automakers have long touted the idea that better dealer experiences lead to happier customers who are more likely to become repeat customers.
Persons: Abby Vietor, Vietor Organizations: Netflix, Ford, Amazon Web Services, Ford University Locations: Mich
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